Midwest U.S. landscape change to 2020 driven by biofuel mandates
Mehaffey, M; Smith, E; Van Remortel, R
| HERO ID | 2465614 |
|---|---|
| In Press | No |
| Year | 2012 |
| Title | Midwest U.S. landscape change to 2020 driven by biofuel mandates |
| Authors | Mehaffey, M; Smith, E; Van Remortel, R |
| Journal | Ecological Applications |
| Volume | 22 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Page Numbers | 8-19 |
| Abstract | Meeting future biofuel targets set by the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) will require a substantial increase in production of corn. The Midwest, which has the highest overall crop production capacity, is likely to bear the brunt of the biofuel-driven changes. In this paper, we set forth a method for developing a possible future landscape and evaluate changes in practices and production between base year (BY) 2001 and biofuel target (BT) 2020. In our BT 2020 Midwest landscape, a total of 25 million acres (1 acre = 0.40 ha) of farmland was converted from rotational cropping to continuous corn. Several states across the Midwest had watersheds where continuous corn planting increased by more than 50%. The output from the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development (CARD) econometric model predicted that corn grain production would double. In our study we were able to get within 2% of this expected corn production. The greatest increases in corn production were in the Corn Belt as a result of conversion to continuous corn planting. In addition to changes to cropping practices as a result of biofuel initiatives we also found that urban growth would result in a loss of over 7 million acres of productive farmland by 2020. We demonstrate a method which successfully combines economic model output with gridded land cover data to create a spatially explicit detailed classification of the landscape across the Midwest. Understanding where changes are likely to take place on the landscape will enable the evaluation of trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services allowing proactive conservation and sustainable production for human well-being into the future. |
| Doi | 10.1890/10-1573.1 |
| Pmid | 22471072 |
| Wosid | WOS:000301095600003 |
| Is Certified Translation | No |
| Dupe Override | No |
| Is Public | Yes |
| Language Text | English |
| Keyword | agriculture; biofuels; corn ethanol; future scenarios; landscape change |