USDA agricultural projections to 2029
HERO ID
10285627
Reference Type
Technical Report
Year
2020
Language
English
| HERO ID | 10285627 |
|---|---|
| Year | 2020 |
| Title | USDA agricultural projections to 2029 |
| Authoring Organization | U.S. Department of Agriculture |
| Publisher Text | U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist |
| City | Washington, DC |
| Abstract | This report provides projections for the agricultural sector to 2029. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. The Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 is assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The projections in this report were prepared during July 2019 through January 2020, with the commodity projections based off the conditions as of the October 2019 WASDE. While agricultural crop prices are tending to trend upwards only slowly in nominal terms, U.S. trade disputes with China that existed at the time of these projections were formulated have dampened expectations, particularly for soybeans. These projections assume the trade disputes to continue the duration of the projection period. Planted acreage drops slightly overall compared to recent years, primarily due to expected lower soybean plantings, while corn and wheat plantings are expected to remain mostly unmoved. Acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is also expected to rise, lowering total acres to the eight main crops. Energy costs are expected to increase, with crude oil import prices reaching $91 per barrel at the end of the projection. Low feed costs and continued strong global demand provide economic incentives for expansion in the livestock sector. Long-run developments for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued global demand for biofuel feedstocks, factors which combine to support longer run increases in disappearance, trade, and, to a lesser extent, prices of agricultural products. Although a relatively strong but slowly weakening U.S. dollar is expected to dampen growth in U.S. agricultural exports, the United States remains competitive in global agricultural markets, in part due to efficiency gains. Net farm income is expected to increase $1.4 billion in 2020 to $93.9 billion and remaining between $88.8 and $98.6 billion for the remainder of the decade, trending upward during the latter half |
| Report Number | OCE-2020-1 |
| Url | https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=95911 |
| Is Certified Translation | No |
| Dupe Override | No |
| Number Of Pages | 114 |
| Is Public | Yes |
| Language Text | English |