Abstract  Seeds for the historic drought of 2012 were sown during the back-to-back La Niña episodes of 2010–11 and 2011–12. La Niña, a name given to anomalous cooling of the equatorial waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often correlates with drought development and expansion across the southern United States. Indeed, drought began to develop across the southern tier of the U.S. during the winter of 2010–11, and quickly intensified during the 2011 growing season. Effects of the 2011 drought were particularly severe in the south-central U.S.

Abstract  Oil palm supplies >30% of world vegetable oil production(1). Plantation expansion is occurring throughout the tropics, predominantly in Indonesia, where forests with heterogeneous carbon stocks undergo high conversion rates(2-4). Quantifying oil palms contribution to global carbon budgets therefore requires refined spatio-temporal assessments of land cover converted to plantations(5,6). Here, we report oil palm development across Kalimantan (538; 346 km(2)) from 1990 to 2010, and project expansion to 2020 within government-allocated leases. Using Landsat satellite analyses to discern multiple land covers, coupled with above- and below-ground carbon accounting, we develop the first high-resolution carbon flux estimates from Kalimantan plantations. From 1990 to 2010, 90% of lands converted to oil palm were forested (47% intact, 22% logged, 21% agroforests). By 2010, 87% of total oil palm area (31,640 km(2)) occurred on mineral soils, and these plantations contributed 61-73% of 1990-2010 net oil palm emissions (0.020-0.024 GtC yr(-1)). Although oil palm expanded 278% from 2000 to 2010, 79% of allocated leases remained undeveloped. By 2020, full lease development would convert 93; 844 km(2) (similar to 90% forested lands, including 41% intact forests). Oil palm would then occupy 34% of lowlands outside protected areas. Plantation expansion in Kalimantan alone is projected to contribute 18-22% (0.12-0.15 GtC yr(-1)) of Indonesias 2020 CO2-equivalent emissions. Allocated oil palm leases represent a critical yet undocumented source of deforestation and carbon emissions.

Abstract  Fires associated with agricultural and plantation development in Indonesia impact ecosystem services and release emissions into the atmosphere that degrade regional air quality and contribute to greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we estimate the relative contributions of the oil palm, timber (for wood pulp and paper), and logging industries in Sumatra and Kalimantan to land cover change, fire activity, and regional population exposure to smoke concentrations. Concessions for these three industries cover 21% and 49% of the land area in Sumatra and Kalimantan respectively, with the highest overall area in lowlands on mineral soils instead of more carbon-rich peatlands. In 2012, most remaining forest area was located in logging concessions for both islands, and for all combined concessions, there was higher remaining lowland and peatland forest area in Kalimantan (45% and 46%, respectively) versus Sumatra (20% and 27%, respectively). Emissions from all combined concessions comprised 41% of total fire emissions (within and outside of concession boundaries) in Sumatra and 27% in Kalimantan for the 2006 burning season, which had high fire activity relative to decadal emissions. Most fire emissions were observed in concessions located on peatlands and non-forested lowlands, the latter of which could include concessions that are currently under production, cleared in preparation for production, or abandoned lands. For the 2006 burning season, timber concessions from Sumatra (47% of area and 88% of emissions) and oil palm concessions from Kalimantan (33% of area and 67% of emissions) contributed the most to concession-related fire emissions from each island. Although fire emissions from concessions were higher in Kalimantan, emissions from Sumatra contributed 63% of concession-related smoke concentrations for the population-weighted region because fire sources were located closer to population centers. In order to protect regional public health, our results highlight the importance of limiting the use of fire by the timber and oil palm industries, particularly on concessions that contain peatlands and non-forest, by such methods as improving monitoring systems, local-level management, and enforcement of existing fire bans.

Abstract  Deforestation continues across the tropics at alarming rates, with repercussions for ecosystem processes, carbon storage and long term sustainability. Taking advantage of recent fine-scale measurement of deforestation, this analysis aims to improve our understanding of the scale of deforestation drivers in the tropics. We examined trends in forest clearings of different sizes from 2000-2012 by country, region and development level. As tropical deforestation increased from approximately 6900 kha yr(-1) in the first half of the study period, to >7900 kha yr(-1) in the second half of the study period, >50% of this increase was attributable to the proliferation of medium and large clearings (>10 ha). This trend was most pronounced in Southeast Asia and in South America. Outside of Brazil >60% of the observed increase in deforestation in South America was due to an upsurge in medium-and large-scale clearings; Brazil had a divergent trend of decreasing deforestation, >90% of which was attributable to a reduction in medium and large clearings. The emerging prominence of large-scale drivers of forest loss in many regions and countries suggests the growing need for policy interventions which target industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers. The experience in Brazil suggests that there are promising policy solutions to mitigate large-scale deforestation, but that these policy initiatives do not adequately address small-scale drivers. By providing up-to-date and spatially explicit information on the scale of deforestation, and the trends in these patterns over time, this study contributes valuable information for monitoring and designing effective interventions to address deforestation.

Abstract  Ethanol is a biofuel that is used as a replacement for approximately 3% of the fossil-based gasoline consumed in the world today. Most of this biofuel is produced from sugarcane in Brazil and corn in the United States. We present here the rationale for the ethanol program in Brazil, its present 'status' and its perspectives. The environmental benefits of the program, particularly the contribution of ethanol to reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, are discussed, as well as the limitations to its expansion.

Abstract  Abstract In this study, we investigated the extent of peatland degradation and development in Peninsular Malaysia and in the islands of Sumatra and Borneo, in the western part of insular Southeast Asia, since 1990. Furthermore, carbon emissions caused by these land cover changes were estimated in order to evaluate their contribution to global climate change. High resolution Landsat (30?m spatial resolution) and Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT; 10?20?m) satellite images were used to derive information on land cover in 1990 and 2008. Analysis of land cover changes since 1990 revealed remarkable reduction and degradation of peatswamp forest ecosystems. In less than 20 years, 5·1?Mha of the total 15·5?Mha of peatland had been deforested (11·6?Mha???6·5?Mha; 75 per cent???42 per cent) and the great majority of the remaining forests had been selectively logged. Simultaneously, area covered by unmanaged secondary growth ecosystems had doubled to nearly a quarter of all peatlands and industrial plantations had expanded dramatically (0·3?Mha???2·3?Mha; 2 per cent???15 per cent). It was conservatively estimated that these changes have caused minimum of 1·5?Gt carbon emissions into the atmosphere since 1990. Currently, peatlands of the study area emit at least 81?Mt of carbon (equivalent to 300?Mt of carbon dioxide) on annual basis due to mere peat decomposition. Thereby, it was concluded that peatland degradation and development in insular Southeast Asia during the past two decades have not only put the existence of Southeast Asian peatswamp forest ecosystems in danger but it has also caused globally significant carbon emissions and created a constant source of carbon dioxide. Copyright ? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract  This paper uses monthly data to investigate the dynamic linkages between the prices of crude oil, biofuels and selected agricultural commodities. We apply the ARDL approach to cointegration, in conjunction with Granger causality tests. The empirical evidence supports the existence of significant causal effects revealing strong interdependencies among the examined markets.

Abstract  Indonesia biodiesel production is forecast slightly higher in 2018, as the Public Service Obligation (blending mandate) program continues and exports rise. Indonesia does not import biodiesel. Biodiesel consumption was slightly down in 2017, but expected to increase in 2018 assuming the mandate will be extended to the mining industry and diesel trains. Indonesia biodiesel exports dropped to a mere 187 million liters in 2017, the lowest level since 2006. Post expects 2018 biodiesel exports to rise to one billion liters following the removal of EU anti-dumping duties and sales growth to other markets.

Abstract  Total ethanol production for 2020 is estimated at 31.35 billion liters, a decrease of 16 percent relative to the revised figure for 2019 (37.38 billion liters), mainly because sugar-ethanol plants are diverting more sugarcane towards sugar production. Biodiesel production remains tightly regulated by the government. Total Brazilian biodiesel production in 2020 is estimated at 6.27 billion liters, an increase of six percent compared to the previous year. The Renovabio Program officially went into effect last December and it is designed to support Brazil’s 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) goals. On April 27, 2020, the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) started to trade Decarbonization Credits (CBios) as prescribed under the program. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the expected negative impact in the Brazilian Ottocycle fuel consumption (gasoline and ethanol) in the next couple of years, forced the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) to propose the review of compulsory targets under RenovaBio.

Abstract  This report updates the findings of the first Report to Congress, published in 2011, with respect to environmental and resource conservation impacts, which together are intended to address the Section 204 statutory impacts since the passage of the EISA. This report reflects the current scientific understanding of the Section 204 impacts as presented in the published literature about biofuel use and production using data gathered through May 2017. Data on U.S. land use and the scientific literature through April 2017 were also reviewed. Greenhouse gas emission reductions that result from replacing biofuel with fossil fuel are not assessed in this report. This report does not make comparisons to estimated environmental impacts of other transportation fuels or energy sources.

Abstract  In addition to the United States, Brazil and the EU, more than two dozen countries mandate the blending of ethanol in transportation fuel, and many others have ethanol targets or encourage its use without an official requirement. The increased use of ethanol globally could provide strong and diverse export market opportunities for U.S. ethanol and ethanol byproducts.

Abstract  New plantations can either cause deforestation by replacing natural forests or avoid this by using previously cleared areas. The extent of these two situations is contested in tropical biodiversity hotspots where objective data are limited. Here, we explore delays between deforestation and the establishment of industrial tree plantations on Borneo using satellite imagery. Between 1973 and 2015 an estimated 18.7 Mha of Borneo's old-growth forest were cleared (14.4 Mha and 4.2 Mha in Indonesian and Malaysian Borneo). Industrial plantations expanded by 9.1 Mha (7.8 Mha oil-palm; 1.3 Mha pulpwood). Approximately 7.0 Mha of the total plantation area in 2015 (9.2 Mha) were old-growth forest in 1973, of which 4.5-4.8 Mha (24-26% of Borneo-wide deforestation) were planted within five years of forest clearance (3.7-3.9 Mha oil-palm; 0.8-0.9 Mha pulpwood). This rapid within-five-year conversion has been greater in Malaysia than in Indonesia (57-60% versus 15-16%). In Indonesia, a higher proportion of oil-palm plantations was developed on already cleared degraded lands (a legacy of recurrent forest fires). However, rapid conversion of Indonesian forests to industrial plantations has increased steeply since 2005. We conclude that plantation industries have been the principle driver of deforestation in Malaysian Borneo over the last four decades. In contrast, their role in deforestation in Indonesian Borneo was less marked, but has been growing recently. We note caveats in interpreting these results and highlight the need for greater accountability in plantation development.

Abstract  Fuel ethanol consumption has grown significantly in the past several years, and it will continue to grow with the establishment of a renewable fuel standard (RFS) in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (P.L. 109-58) and the expansion of that RFS in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-140). This standard requires U.S. transportation fuels to contain a minimum amount of renewable fuel, including ethanol. Most of the U.S. market is supplied by domestic refiners producing ethanol from American corn. However, imports play a small but growing role in the U.S. market. One reason for the relatively small role is a 2.5% ad valorem tariff and (more significantly) a 54-cent-per-gallon added duty on imported ethanol. These duties offset an economic incentive of 51 cents per gallon for the use of ethanol in gasoline. However, to promote development and stability in the Caribbean region and Central America, the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) allows the imports of most products, including ethanol, duty-free. While many of these products are produced in CBI countries, ethanol entering the United States under the CBI is generally produced elsewhere and reprocessed in CBI countries for export to the United States. The U.S.- Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) would maintain this duty-free treatment and set specific allocations for imports from Costa Rica and El Salvador. Duty-free treatment of CBI ethanol has raised concerns, especially as the market for ethanol has the potential for dramatic expansion under P.L. 109-58 and P.L. 110-140.

Abstract  The main objective of this empirical work is to test whether the global ethanol markets move together. To serve this purpose, prices of the US and Brazilian ethanol sectors have been analyzed. Employing the asymmetric multivariate GARCH model, we document significant price and volatility spillover effects between the ethanol markets under study. Such findings indicate that world ethanol markets move together and they are not regionalized. These results have important implications. For example, given that ethanol markets are codependent, information flow across ethanol markets could guide policymaking and the formulation of hedging strategies for contagion risk prevention during ethanol market downturns. In addition, this type of information on ethanol markets is also crucial for investors to maintain well-diversified portfolios, and for opening (closing) investment positions.

Abstract  We evaluated three spatially explicit land use and cover change (LUCC) models to project deforestation from 2005-2020 in the carbon-rich peat swamp forests (PSF) of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Such models are increasingly used to evaluate the impact of deforestation on carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. We considered both business-as-usual (BAU) and a forest protection scenario to evaluate each model's accuracy, sensitivity, and total projected deforestation and landscape-level fragmentation patterns. The three models, Dinamica EGO (DE), GEOMOD and the Land Change Modeler (LCM), projected similar total deforestation amounts by 2020 with a mean of 1.01 million ha (Mha) and standard deviation of 0.17 Mha. The inclusion of a 0.54 Mha strict protected area in the LCM simulations reduced projected loss to 0.77 Mha over 15 years. Calibrated parameterizations of the models using nearly identical input drivers produced very different landscape properties, as measured by the number of forest patches, mean patch area, contagion, and Euclidean nearest neighbor determined using Fragstats software. The average BAU outputs of the models suggests that Central Kalimantan may lose slightly less than half (45.1%) of its 2005 PSF by 2020 if measures are not taken to reduce deforestation there. The relatively small reduction of 0.24 Mha in deforestation found in the 0.54 Mha protection scenario suggests that these models can identify potential leakage effects in which deforestation is forced to occur elsewhere in response to a policy intervention.

Abstract  Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

Abstract  By extensively reviewing the current state of knowledge, this paper explores the sustainability implications of palm oil biodiesel in Southeast Asia, with a focus on Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Both ecological and environmental vitality as well as socio-economic equity are emphasized in the authors exploration of sustainability in the three country cases. The article observes that the main environmental sustainability considerations of palm oil biodiesel include its capacity to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, its carbon debt and its repercussions on forestry, biodiversity, and soil and water quality. Issues surrounding socio-economic sustainability encompass how palm oil biodiesel affects food security in Southeast Asia, along with the impact of palm oil production on rural livelihoods and land-tenure. The authors firstly explore the origins, drivers and current technologies surrounding palm oil biodiesel development in the region. They then present the three country cases in order to concentrate on the particular policies, challenges and opportunities that uniquely impact the sustainability of biodiesel development in each locale. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract  A survey of the density and population size of Bornean orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus) was carried out in 1995 and 1996 in an area of peat swamp forest in the Sungai (River) Sebangau catchment, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Densities were calculated for four forest sub-types by counts of orang-utan sleeping platforms (nests) along line transects. Densities were found to be highest in the tall interior and mixed swamp forest sub-types. Low pole forest supported the lowest density. Habitat disturbance caused by logging was shown to affect orang-utan density within mixed swamp forest. The orang-utan population for a larger peat covered landscape unit (9200 km2), including the Sebangau catchment, was estimated to be between 5671 (±955) and 8951 (±1509) individuals, based upon the area of each forest type, the level of disturbance in each area and corrected to prevent overestimates. This study identifies the presence of a very large, self-sustaining orang-utan population in this region and emphasises the urgent requirement for greater protection of Kalimantan's peat swamp forests in the light of recent and rapid habitat degradation.