Abstract  Commodity crop expansion has increased with the globalization of production systems and consumer demand, linking distant socio-ecological systems. Oil palm plantations are expanding in the tropics to satisfy growing oilseed and biofuel markets, and much of this expansion has caused extensive deforestation, especially in Asia. In Latin America, palm oil output has doubled since 2001, and the majority of expansion seems to be occurring on non-forested lands. We used MODIS satellite imagery (250 m resolution) to map current oil palm plantations in Latin America and determined prior land use and land cover (LULC) using high-resolution images in Google Earth. In addition, we compiled trade data to determine where Latin American palm oil flows, in order to better understand the underlying drivers of expansion in the region. Based on a sample of 342 032 ha of oil palm plantations across Latin America, we found that 79% replaced previously intervened lands (e.g. pastures, croplands, bananas), primarily cattle pastures (56%). The remaining 21% came from areas that were classified as woody vegetation (e.g. forests), most notably in the Amazon and the Peten region in northern Guatemala. Latin America is a net exporter of palm oil but the majority of palm oil exports (70%) stayed within the region, with Mexico importing about half. Growth of the oil palm sector may be driven by global factors, but environmental and economic outcomes vary between regions (i.e. Asia and Latin America), within regions (i.e. Colombia and Peru), and within single countries (i.e. Guatemala), suggesting that local conditions are influential. The present trend of oil palm expanding onto previously cleared lands, guided by roundtable certifications programs, provides an opportunity for more sustainable development of the oil palm sector in Latin America.

Abstract  Rising global demands for food and biofuels are driving forest clearance in the tropics. Oil-palm expansion contributes to biodiversity declines and carbon emissions in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitudes of these impacts remain largely unquantified until now. We produce a 250-m spatial resolution map of closed canopy oil-palm plantations in the lowlands of Peninsular Malaysia (2 million ha), Borneo (2.4 million ha), and Sumatra (3.9 million ha). We demonstrate that 6% (or ≈880,000 ha) of tropical peatlands in the region had been converted to oil-palm plantations by the early 2000s. Conversion of peatswamp forests to oil palm led to biodiversity declines of 1% in Borneo (equivalent to four species of forest-dwelling birds), 3.4% in Sumatra (16 species), and 12.1% in Peninsular Malaysia (46 species). This land-use change also contributed to the loss of ≈140 million Mg of aboveground biomass carbon, and annual emissions of ≈4.6 million Mg of belowground carbon from peat oxidation. Additionally, the loss of peatswamp forests implies the loss of carbon sequestration service through peat accumulation, which amounts to ≈660,000 Mg of carbon annually. By 2010, 2.3 million ha of peatswamp forests were clear-felled, and currently occur as degraded lands. Reforestation of these clearings could enhance biodiversity by up to ≈20%, whereas oil-palm establishment would exacerbate species losses by up to ≈12%. To safeguard the region's biodiversity and carbon stocks, conservation and reforestation efforts should target Central Kalimantan, Riau, and West Kalimantan, which retain three-quarters (3.9 million ha) of the remaining peatswamp forests in Southeast Asia.

Abstract  Sugarcane ethanol has been produced in Brazil since the early 20th century, but production increased in the mid-1970s aiming at substituting 20% of the gasoline. Despite an increase in the 2000s production has been stable since 2008. This paper presents a review of the main developments achieved and future challenges. The sector has had positive economic and environmental results through technological development, as a result of research and development by private companies and strong public support. Sugarcane yield has steadily increased and positively impacted production costs, primarily due to better agronomic practices and breeding programs. Owing to environmental and economic reasons, there are on-going programs to phase out burning, with the gradual replacement of manual harvest with burning by unburnt mechanised harvest. Important agronomic impacts are expected, caused by the large amount of straw left on the soil surface, which also represents a significant bioenergy potential. The sugarcane industry in Brazil has taken advantage of the combined production of sugar and ethanol, and, recently, many mills have enlarged their revenues with surplus electricity. The current efforts for diversification aim at ethanol production through hydrolysis of sugarcane residues and the development of chemical routes. From an environmental point of view, impacts related to land use change are expected on greenhouse emissions, water resources, and biodiversity. Ethanol production is likely to expand in Brazil due to the potential size of the domestic market and to the opportunities for exporting, but this will occur in a context of different and new challenges.

Abstract  This article explains why we are experiencing a boom in ethanol and other biofuels, the current status of biofuels, and prospects for the future under different policy regimes. I argue that todays boom is in a sense an unintended consequence of a fixed ethanol subsidy that was keyed to $20-per-barrel crude oil, combined with a surge in crude oil prices-initially to $60 per barrel, and later doubling to $120 per barrel. Future prospects for corn ethanol depend on the crude oil price, the price of corn and distillers grains, the market value of ethanol, plant capital and operating costs, and federal ethanol and biofuels policies. I examine the impacts of a wide range of policies for subsidies and renewable fuels standards. Policy choices will be absolutely critical in determining the extent to which biofuels targets are achieved and at what cost. However, if the price of oil remains above $100 per barrel, biofuels will continue to be produced even without government interventions.

Abstract  Oil palm is one of the world's most rapidly expanding equatorial crops. The two largest oil palm-producing countries—Indonesia and Malaysia—are located in Southeast Asia, a region with numerous endemic, forest-dwelling species. Oil palm producers have asserted that forests are not being cleared to grow oil palm. Our analysis of land-cover data compiled by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization suggests that during the period 1990–2005, 55%–59% of oil palm expansion in Malaysia, and at least 56% of that in Indonesia occurred at the expense of forests. Using data on bird and butterfly diversity in Malaysia's forests and croplands, we argue that conversion of either primary or secondary (logged) forests to oil palm may result in significant biodiversity losses, whereas conversion of pre-existing cropland (rubber) to oil palm results in fewer losses. To safeguard the biodiversity in oil palm-producing countries, more fine-scale and spatially explicit data on land-use change need to be collected and analyzed to determine the extent and nature of any further conversion of forests to oil palm; secondary forests should be protected against conversion to oil palm; and any future expansion of oil palm agriculture should be restricted to pre-existing cropland or degraded habitats.

Abstract  We investigate land-use dynamics in Jambi, Sumatra, one of the hotspots of Indonesia's recent oil palm boom. Data from a structured village survey are used to analyze the role of socioeconomic and policy factors. Oil palm is partly grown on large plantations, but smallholders are also involved to a significant extent. We find that, in spite of considerable oil palm expansion, rubber remains the dominant crop. Most of the oil palm growth takes place on previous fallow and rubber land. Oil palm has not been a major driver of deforestation. Much of the forest in Jambi was cleared more than 20 years ago, and rubber was an established cash crop long before the oil palm boom started. However, oil palm growth occurs in locations with ongoing logging activities, so indirect effects on deforestation are possible. The Indonesian government's transmigration program of the 1980s and 1990s was instrumental for the start and spread of oil palm in Jambi. Some autochthonous villages have adopted oil palm. But oil palm adoption in autochthonous villages started later and happens at a slower pace than in the villages of the transmigrants from Java.

Abstract  Many countries have limited low-cost biomass resources to satisfy their own demand for bioenergy; consequently, international trade in biomass in various liquid and solid forms is increasing. The aim of this study is to present a quantitative overview of the development of international biomass trade for energy purposes. This paper focuses on the main biomass producing and consuming countries, as well as exporters and importers of liquid and solid biofuels, such as wood pellets, biodiesel, and bio-ethanol, and biomass products, for example industrial roundwood. The study discusses changes in trends that have occurred over the past decade, and investigates emerging energy biomass trade streams. Due to increased demand for wood pellets from the heating and industrial sectors, global wood pellet markets and international trade have increased significantly in the past decade. The United States and Brazil remain leaders in bio-ethanol production with about 45 Mt and 24 Mt respectively. In recent years, Asian markets such as China (industrial roundwood), South Korea (wood pellets), Malaysia, and Indonesia (palm oil) have developed considerably. In the EU-28, more than 60% of total palm oil consumption is used for energy purposes. The EU is the global leader in biomass for energy utilization and also the main importer of most biomass products, particularly wood pellets.

Abstract  Nonreciprocal trade preference programs originated in the 1970s under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) as an effort by high-income developed countries to provide tariff concessions for low-income countries. The goal of the programs was to increase export earnings, promote industrialization, and stimulate economic growth in the lower income countries. This study analyzes detailed trade and tariff data for the United States and the European Union (the two largest nonreciprocal preference donors) to determine the extent to which the programs have increased exports from beneficiary countries. For those products where the margins of preference are large and where beneficiaries have a comparative advantage and the capacity to expand production, these programs can create adequate incentives leading to a growing export market. The analysis finds that the programs offer significant benefits for some countries, mostly the higher income developing countries. Economic benefits in the least developed countries have been modest. An unanswered question is whether these gains will continue after the incentives are reduced.

Abstract  Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr−1, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr−1 of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.

Abstract  Land use change associated with the expansion of industrial scale oil palm plantations in three regions of Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua), in Malaysia, and in Papua New Guinea, was documented using Landsat images that were visually interpreted to create a region-wide map of 22 different land cover types spanning three temporal periods (1990 to 2000, 2001 to 2005 and 2006 to 2009/2010). In 1990, there were approximately 3.5 Mha of industrial oil palm plantations in the three countries, which had expanded to 13.1 Mha hectares by 2010. Growth occurred at an approximately constant rate of 7% per year over twenty years; the absolute rate of expansion was greatest in Sumatra in the first and second period (167,000 and 219,000 ha yr-1), which was surpassed in Kalimantan in the last temporal period (360,197 ha yr-1). When averaged over all regions and temporal periods only 4.1% (397,000 ha) of oil palm plantations originated on land derived directly from undisturbed forests (0.2% upland and 4.0% swamp), while 32.4% (3.1 Mha) were established on land previously covered with disturbed forest (25.6% upland and 6.8% swamp). Conversion of low biomass shrub lands and grasslands was documented at 17.8% (1.7 Mha) with 13.5% from upland soils and 4.4% from swamp soils; plantations and agroforest combined contributed 33.9% (3.3 Mha). A category recognized as bare soil, the result of change involving multiple different classes, including the replanting of mature oil palm plantations and the conversion of forest, represented 8.3% (0.8 Mha); miscellaneous categories including annual crops, mines, settlements, mangrove swamps, water bodies, and persistent clouds totaled 3.4% (334,000 ha). Forest conversion to establish oil palm, including both undisturbed and disturbed forest in both upland and swamp forest habitats summed over all temporal periods was proportionally greatest in Papua (61%: 33,600 ha), Sabah (62%: 714,000 ha) and Papua New Guinea (54%: 41,700 ha), followed by Kalimantan (44%: 1.23 Mha), Sarawak (48%: 471,000 ha), Sumatra (25%: 883,000 ha) and Peninsular Malaysia (28%: 318,000 ha). In Kalimantan, the largest sources of land for new plantations were actually from shrub and grassland (48%: 1.3 Mha), while other types of plantations were more important in Sumatra (59%: 2.1 Mha) and Peninsular Malaysia (44%: 487,000 ha). In Indonesia, the largest single cause of historical forest loss can be attributed to unsustainable logging followed by the impact of fire, which in combination led to the progressive transition of large areas of forest landscape into agroforest or shrub land. In Malaysia, the direct conversion of forest to oil palm was more common, particularly in Sabah and Sarawak, but in Peninsular Malaysia the conversion of other types of land use; particularly plantation crops such as rubber, were more important. A separate analysis using an existing data set for peat soils showed oil palm plantations on peat increased from 418,000 ha (12% of total oil palm area) in 1990 to 2.43 Mha (18%) by 2010 for the total study area. Sumatra has the largest absolute extent of oil palm plantations on peat (1.4 Mha: 29%), followed by Sarawak (476,000 ha: 46%), Kalimantan (307,515 ha: 11%), and Peninsular Malaysia (215,984 ha: 8%), with only 2% of oil palm plantations occurring on peat in Sabah (29,000 ha) and Papua (1,727 ha), while there was no conversion of peat soils in Papua New Guinea.