Abstract  Many countries have limited, low-cost biomass resources to satisfy their own demand for bioenergy. International trade of biomass in various solid and liquid forms is consequently increasing. The aim of this study is to present a quantitative overview of the development of international biomass trade for energy purposes, including a discussion of methodological issues. The paper focuses on the production, export, and import of solid and liquid biofuels, including industrial roundwood, wood chips, fuel wood, wood pellets, biodiesel, and bioethanol. The study highlights changes in trends that have occurred over the past decade. Trade on global bioenergy markets is increasing: total trade of biomass for energy purposes is estimated as having increased twofold from around 780 PJ in 2004 to 1250 PJ in 2015. Despite the importance of the bioenergy market and the growth of biomass trade for energy, accurate evaluation of energy-related biomass trade faces several methodological challenges, such as uncertainties in international statistics, inconsistent data regarding export and import volumes, as well as limited information about the final use of traded products.

Abstract  We estimate the role of biofuel policies in determining which country is the price leader in world biofuel markets using a cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Weekly prices are analyzed for the EU, US, and Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel markets in the 2002-2010 and 2005-2010 time periods, respectively. The US blender's tax credit and Brazil's consumer tax exemption are found to play a role in determining the ethanol prices in other countries. For biodiesel, our results demonstrate that EU policies - the consumer tax exemption and blending target - tend to determine the world biodiesel price.

Abstract  This research aims to analyse 1) the interest of the European Union on Renewable Energy Directive; 2) the protection forms of the European Union on Renewable Energy Directive toward Indonesian Palm Oil; 3) the transformation of Indonesia palm oil managerial after of European Union Renewable Energy Directive. The result of this research shows that there is two interest of the European Union in implementing the policy of Renewable Energy Directive, that is in environment protection with simultaneous criteria and palm oil protection in European unions. It is found that trading protection towards Indonesian palm oil is a form of green protectionism. This protection then implements non-tariff protection as a form of trade barrier. It impacts palm oil exports from Indonesia to the European Union. This protection influenced the policy transformation of palm oil management in Indonesia. The policies are RSPO, ISPO, Presidential Directive on Primary Forest and Peatland, and Presidential Directive on Moratorium and Forest Land Allocation. This research proves that palm oil production in Indonesia changed after the implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive in the European Union. This improvement of palm oil production proves that the policy is influenced by the market drives and not an only environmental issue.

Abstract  The demand growth for biofuels worldwide led to a significant increase in the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol industry from the 2000’s. This scenario affected specially the Center-South region of Brazil, which comprises the states of São Paulo, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goiás, as well as the Federal District of Brasília, because it surpasses all other regions of the country in terms of the production and production facilities. Therefore, the aim of this study is to quantify the sugarcane ethanol industry effects on the per capita municipal gross domestic product (GDP) in the Center-South region of Brazil, for the 2000-2012 period. To that end, we estimated two econometric models, using panel data models and quantile regression. The results show that sugar ethanol industry has an important effect on GDP per capita for the Center-South region municipalities, furthermore the effects are more intensive on the lowest municipalities levels of the per capita GDP, thus being able to provide support for making public policy.

Abstract  Indonesia lost more tropical forest than all of Brazil in 2012, mainly driven by the rubber, oil palm, and timber industries. Nonetheless, the effects of converting forest to oil palm and rubber plantations on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks remain unclear. We analyzed SOC losses after lowland rainforest conversion to oil palm, intensive rubber, and extensive rubber plantations in Jambi Province on Sumatra Island. The focus was on two processes: (1) erosion and (2) decomposition of soil organic matter. Carbon contents in the Ah horizon under oil palm and rubber plantations were strongly reduced up to 70% and 62%, respectively. The decrease was lower under extensive rubber plantations (41%). On average, converting forest to plantations led to a loss of 10 Mg C ha(-1) after about 15 years of conversion. The C content in the subsoil was similar under the forest and the plantations. We therefore assumed that a shift to higher δ(13) C values in plantation subsoil corresponds to the losses from the upper soil layer by erosion. Erosion was estimated by comparing the δ(13) C profiles in the soils under forest and under plantations. The estimated erosion was the strongest in oil palm (35 ± 8 cm) and rubber (33 ± 10 cm) plantations. The (13) C enrichment of SOC used as a proxy of its turnover indicates a decrease of SOC decomposition rate in the Ah horizon under oil palm plantations after forest conversion. Nonetheless, based on the lack of C input from litter, we expect further losses of SOC in oil palm plantations, which are a less sustainable land use compared to rubber plantations. We conclude that δ(13) C depth profiles may be a powerful tool to disentangle soil erosion and SOC mineralization after the conversion of natural ecosystems conversion to intensive plantations when soils show gradual increase of δ(13) C values with depth.

Abstract  Native species that forage in farmland may increase their local abundances thereby affecting adjacent ecosystems within their landscape. We used two decades of ecological data from a protected primary rainforest in Malaysia to illutrate how subsidies from neighboring oil palm plantations triggered powerful secondary 'cascading' effects on natural habitats located >1.3 km away. We found (i) oil palm fruit drove 100-fold increases in crop-raiding native wild boar (Sus scrofa), (ii) wild boar used thousands of understory plants to construct birthing nests in the pristine forest interior, and (iii) nest building caused a 62% decline in forest tree sapling density over the 24-year study period. The long-term, landscape-scale indirect effects from agriculture suggest its full ecological footprint may be larger in extent than is currently recognized. Cross-boundary subsidy cascades may be widespread in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems and present significant conservation challenges.

Abstract  Policies aimed to promote biofuels locally had tremendous effects on global market developments across the past decade. This article develops insights into the interaction of these policies and market forces via a comprehensive collection and analysis of international production and trade data. It shows that world biofuel production and trade has grown exponentially: from below 30 PJ in 2000 to 572 PJ in 2009 for biodiesel; from 340 PJ in 2000 to over 1540 PJ in 2009 for fuel ethanol. The EU has dominated world biodiesel, whereas the US and Brazil have led fuel ethanol production. World net biofuel trade reached 120–130 PJ in 2009 and was directed towards the most lucrative markets. For biodiesel, this has been the EU whose imports rose to 92 PJ in 2008 and remained at 70 PJ in 2009. Regarding fuel ethanol, both the US and the EU have been prime destinations for competitively priced exports, the vast majority of which originated in Brazil. International biofuel trade is both supply and demand driven. The demand side was shaped by support policies which generally increased the domestic market value of biofuels. Trade developed wherever these policies/prices were not accompanied by respective measures. It is found that import duties largely influenced trade volumes, whereas trade routes were mainly driven by tariff preferences. Trade regimes appear to have been designed and adapted unilaterally along national interests causing market disruptions, trade inefficiencies and disputes. To avoid these, it is important to explicitly consider international trade implications of national trade policies. A prerequisite is to improve the understanding of the underlying, complex and interwoven links within the market. The current lack of adequate, homogeneous, international reporting of biofuel production and trade statistics could be bridged via internationally standardized custom clarifications. Trade factor interrelations also need to be investigated further.

Abstract  This is the first triennial Report to Congress required under Section 204 of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). EISA increases the renewable fuel standards (RFS) to 36 billion gallons per year by 2022. Section 204 requires an assessment of environmental and resource conservation impacts of the RFS program. Air and water quality, soil quality and conservation, water availability, ecosystem health and biodiversity, invasive species, and international impacts are assessed, as well as opportunities to mitigate these impacts. Feedstocks compared include corn starch, soybeans, corn stover, perennial grasses, woody biomass, algae, and waste. Biofuels compared include conventional and cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel. This report is a qualitative assessment of peer-reviewed literature. This report concludes that (1) the extent of negative impacts to date are limited in magnitude and are primarily associated with the intensification of corn production; (2) whether future impacts are positive or negative will be determined by the choice of feedstock, land use change, cultivation and conservation practices; and (3) realizing potential benefits will require implementation and monitoring of conservation and best management practices, improvements in production efficiency, and implementation of innovative technologies at commercial scales. This report provides a foundation for comprehensive environmental assessments of biofuel production.

Abstract  The United States has used tax credits and mandates to promote ethanol production. To offset the tax credits received by imported ethanol, the United States instituted an import tariff. This study provides insights about the quantitative nature of a U.S. trade policy that would establish a free-market price for ethanol, given the U.S. ethanol mandate and tax credit. The theoretical results from a horizontally related ethanol-gasoline partial equilibrium model show that the United States should provide an import subsidy rather than impose a tariff. The empirical results quantify that this import subsidy is 9 cents, instead of a 57 cent import tariff, per gallon of ethanol.

Abstract  We investigate the causes of deforestation in Indonesia, a country with one of the highest rates of primary natural forest loss in the tropics, annually between 2001 and 2016. We use high spatial resolution imagery made available on Google Earth to characterize the land cover types following a random selection of deforestation events, drawn from the Global Forest Change dataset. Notorious in the region, large-scale oil palm and timber plantations together contributed more than two-fifths of nationwide deforestation over our study period, with a peak in late aughts followed by a notable decline up to 2016. Conversion of forests to grasslands, which comprised an average of one-fifth of national deforestation, rose sharply in dominance in years following periods of considerable fire activity, particularly in 2016. Small-scale agriculture and small-scale plantations also contributed one-fifth of nationwide forest loss and were the dominant drivers of loss outside the major islands of Indonesia. Although relatively small contributors to total deforestation, logging roads were responsible for a declining share of deforestation, and mining activities were responsible for an increasing share, over the study period. Direct drivers of deforestation in Indonesia are thus spatially and temporally dynamic, suggesting the need for forest conservation policy responses tailored at the subnational level, and new methods for monitoring the causes of deforestation over time.

Abstract  This study evaluates the potential impact of increased biofuel production on the hydrology of a small watershed, Khlong Phlo, in the eastern part of Thailand. The water footprint of biofuel energy was estimated for three crops in order to identify the most water-efficient crop. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the impact of land use change (LUC) caused by the expansion of biofuel crops on the components of water balance and water quality in the studied watershed. Several LUC scenarios consisting of oil palm (biodiesel), cassava and sugarcane (bio-ethanol) expansion were evaluated. The water footprint results indicated that cassava is more water-efficient than the other two crops considered. Simulation results revealed that although oil palm expansion would have negligible alteration in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 1.6%) and water yield (-0.5 to -1.1%), there would be an increased nitrate loading (1.3 to 51.7%) to the surface water. On the contrary, expansion of cassava and sugarcane would decrease evapotranspiration (0.8 to 11.8%) and increase water yield (1.6 to 18.0%), which would lead to increased sediment (10.9 to 91.5%), nitrate (1.9 to 44.5%) and total phosphorus (15.0 to 165.0%) loading to surface water. Based on the results, it can be concluded that land use change for biodiesel production would affect water quality, while both the water balance components and water quality would be affected by the expansion of bio-ethanol crops. Overall, the study indicates that biofuel production would have a negative impact on the water quality of the studied watershed. Further research at large scale (e.g. basin level) and on the economic aspect is recommended, in order to contribute to developing suitable land use and energy policies. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract  This paper offers a holistic study on the complex relationships between crude oil, corn and ethanol during a turbulent period between 2006 and end of 2011. Through a holistic mapping of the current market situation and a contextual analytical design we show that there exists a strong relationship between crude oil and corn markets on one side, and crude oil and ethanol on the other. However, the price relationship between corn and ethanol was revealed to be less straightforward, and is driven by the US government fuel policy. Furthermore the study indicates that corn markets have became more prone to volatility due to ethanol production, especially when the demand for corn is high and/or the crude oil prices are high enough to create a competitive market for ethanol.

Abstract  In May 2020, the IEA market update on renewable energy provided an analysis that looked at the impact of Covid-19 on renewable energy deployment in 2020 and 2021. This early assessment showed that the Covid-19 crisis is hurting – but not halting – global renewable energy growth. Half a year later, the pandemic continues to affect the global economy and daily life. However, renewable markets, especially electricity-generating technologies, have already shown their resilience to the crisis. Renewables 2020 provides detailed analysis and forecasts through 2025 of the impact of Covid-19 on renewables in the electricity heat and transport sectors.

Abstract  Background It has been argued that the US biofuel policy is responsible for the land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I). In this paper, following a short literature review that highlights the relevant topics and issues, we develop analytical and numerical analyses to evaluate the extent to which production of biofuels in the US alters land use in M&I. The analytical analyses make it clear that market-mediated responses may generate some land use change in M&I due to biofuel production in the US. These analyses highlight the role of substitution among vegetable oils in linking these economies in markets for vegetable oils. To numerically quantify these effects, we modified and used a well-known Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), GTAP-BIO. We conducted some sensitivity tests as well. Results According to the simulation results obtained from two base case scenarios for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel, we find that producing 15 BGs of corn ethanol and 2 BGs gallons of soy biodiesel together could potentially increase area of cropland in M&I by 59.6 thousand hectares. That is less than 0.5% of the cropland expansion in M&I for the time period of 2000–2016, when biofuel production increased in the US. The original GTAP-BIO model parameters including the regional substitution rates among vegetable oils were used for the base case scenarios. The estimated induced land use change (ILUC) emissions values for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel are about 12.3 g CO2e MJ−1, 17.5 g CO2e MJ−1 for the base case scenarios. The share of M&I in the estimated ILUC emissions value for corn ethanol is 10.9%. The corresponding figure for soy biodiesel is much higher, 78%. The estimated ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel is sensitive with respect to the changes in the regional rates of substitution elasticity among vegetable oils. That is not the case for corn ethanol. When we replaced the original substitution elasticities of the base case, which are very large (i.e., 5 or 10) for many regions, with a small and uniform rate of substitution (i.e., 0.5) across the world, the ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel drops from 17.5 g CO2e MJ−1 to 10.16 g CO2e MJ−1. When we applied larger substitution elasticities among vegetable oils, the estimated ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel converged towards the base case results. This suggests that, other factors being equal, the base case substitution elasticities provide the largest possible ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel. Finally, our analyses clearly indicate that those analyses that limit their modeling framework to only palm and soy oil and ignore other types of vegetable oils and fats provide misleading information and exaggerate about the land use implications of the US biofuels for M&I. Conclusion (1) Production of biofuels in the US generates some land use effects in M&I due to market-mediated responses, in particular through the links between markets for vegetable oils. These effects are minor compared to the magnitude of land use change in M&I. However, because of the high carbon intensity of the peatland the emissions fraction of M&I is larger, in particular for soy biodiesel. (2) The GTAP-BIO model implemented a set of regional substitution elasticities among vegetable oils that, other factors being equal, provides the largest possible ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel. (3) With a larger substitution elasticity among all types of vegetable oils and animal fats in the US, less land use changes occur in M&I. That is due to the fact that a larger substitution elasticity among vegetable oils in the US, diverts a larger portion of the additional demand for soy oil to non-palm vegetable oils and animal fats that are produced either in the US or regions other than M&I. (4) Those analyses that limit their modeling framework to only palm and soy oils and ignore other types of vegetable oils and fats provide misleading information and exaggerate about the land use implications of the US biofuels for M&I.

Abstract  Argentine fuel ethanol production and consumption are forecast to increase to a record 1.15 billion liters in 2018 as the local industry expands in order to fulfill the official quota and a growing demand of gasoline. Biodiesel production in 2018 is forecast at 2.76 billion liters, a drop from the previous two years because of expected lower exports. The US government set in late 2017 anti-subsidy duties and in April 2018 anti-dumping duties on biodiesel coming from Argentina. In practice, this means that local biodiesel will not enter the United States. During the first seven months of the year, there were large volumes of biodiesel exported to the EU. However, following a complaint from the European industry, Argentine biodiesel imports could be affected by higher import duties in the near future. At the same time, the Argentine government has increased biodiesel export taxes from 8 to 15 percent, effective July 2018.

Abstract  Peatlands play important ecological, economic and cultural roles in human well-being. Although considered sensitive to climate change and anthropogenic pressures, the spatial extent of peatlands is poorly constrained. We report the development of an improved global peatland map, PEATMAP, based on a meta-analysis of geospatial information collated from a variety of sources at global, regional and national levels. We estimate total global peatland area to be 4.23 million km(2), approximately 2.84% of the world land area. Our results suggest that previous global peatland inventories are likely to underestimate peat extent in the tropics, and to overestimate it in parts of mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Global wetland and soil datasets are poorly suited to estimating peatland distribution. For instance, tropical peatland extents are overestimated by Global Lakes and Wetlands Database - Level 3 (GLWD-3) due to the lack of ground-truthing data; and underestimated by the use of histosols to represent peatlands in the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) v1.2, as large areas of swamp forest peat in the humid tropics are omitted. PEATMAP and its underlying data are freely available as a potentially useful tool for scientists and policy makers with interests in peatlands or wetlands. PEATMAP's data format and file structure are intended to allow it to be readily updated when previously undocumented peatlands are found and mapped, and when regional or national land cover maps are updated and refined.

Abstract  Global biodiesel production grew by 23% per annum between 2005 and 2015, leading to a seven-fold expansion of the sector in a single decade. Rapid development in the biodiesel sector corresponded to high crude oil prices, but since mid-2014, oil prices have fallen dramatically. This paper assesses the economic and policy factors that underpinned the expansion of biodiesel, and examines the near-term prospects for biodiesel growth under conditions of low fossil fuel prices. We show that the dramatic increase in biodiesel output would not have occurred without strong policy directives, subsidies, and trade policies designed to support agricultural interests, rural economic development, energy security, and climate targets. Given the important role of policy—and the political context within each country that shapes policy objectives, instruments, and priorities—case studies of major biodiesel producing countries are presented as a key element of our analysis. Although the narrative of biodiesel policies in most countries conveys win-win outcomes across multiple objectives, the case studies show that support of particular constituents, such as farm lobbies or energy interests, often dominates policy action and generates large social costs. Looking out to 2020, the paper highlights risks to the biodiesel industry associated with ongoing regulatory and market uncertainties.

Abstract  This study examines the main factors affecting the demand and supply of biofuels; shifts in biofuel production, consumption, and policy; and trends in biofuel trade, focusing on the United States, Brazil, and the EU. It also offers insight into potential future changes for U.S. biofuel markets.

Abstract  This Notice provides an opportunity to comment on EPA's analyses of palm oil used as a feedstock to produce biodiesel and renewable diesel under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. EPA's analysis of the two types of biofuel shows that biodiesel and renewable diesel produced from palm oil have estimated lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of 17% and 11% respectively for these biofuels compared to the statutory baseline petroleum-based diesel fuel used in the RFS program. This analysis indicates that both palm oil-based biofuels would fail to qualify as meeting the minimum 20% GHG performance threshold for renewable fuel under the RFS program.